Estimated Annual Percentage Change Research Articles

Global burden of liver cirrhosis 1990–2019 and 20 years forecast: results from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background Cirrhosis is a disease that imposes a heavy burden worldwide, but its incidence varies widely by region. Therefore, we analysed data on the incidence and mortality of cirrhosis in 204 countries and territories from 1990–2019 and projected the disease development from 2019–2039. Methods Data on the incidence and mortality of liver cirrhosis from 1990 to 2019 were acquired from the public Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. In addition, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of the age-standardized rate (ASR) of cirrhosis in different regions were calculated. The estimates of risk factor exposure were summarized, and the proportion of causes and risk factors of liver cirrhosis and their relationship with the human development index (HDI) and socio–demographic index (SDI) were analysed. Trends in the incidence of cirrhosis in 2019–2039 were predicted using Nordpred and BAPC models. Results Globally, the ASR of cirrhosis incidence decreased by 0.05% per year from 25.7/100,000 in 1990 to 25.3/100,000 in 2019. The mortality risk associated with cirrhosis is notably lower in females than in males (13 per 100,000 vs 25 per 100,000). The leading cause of cirrhosis shifted from hepatitis B to C. Globally, alcohol use increased by 14%. In line, alcohol use contributed to 49.3% of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and 48.4% of global deaths from liver cirrhosis. Countries with a low ASR in 1990 experienced a faster increase in cirrhosis, whereas in 2019, the opposite was observed. In countries with high SDI, the ASR of cirrhosis is generally lower. Finally, projections indicate that the number and incidence of cirrhosis will persistently rise from 2019–2039. Conclusions Cirrhosis poses an increasing health burden. Given the changing etiology, there is an imperative to strengthen the prevention of hepatitis C and alcohol consumption, to achieve early reduce the incidence of cirrhosis.

Global Burden and Trends of Primary Liver Cancer Attributable to Comorbid Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Among People Living with Hepatitis B: An Observational Trend Study from 1990 to 2019.

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) increases the risk of liver cancer among people living with hepatitis B virus (HBV). Our study aimed to estimate the global burden and trends of liver cancer attributable to comorbid T2DM among people living with HBV from 1990 to 2019. We calculated the population attributable fractions (PAFs) of liver cancer attributable to comorbid T2DM among the burden of HBV-related liver cancer. We applied the PAFs to the burden of HBV-related liver cancer derived from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database to obtain the burden of liver cancer attributable to HBV-T2DM comorbidity. The prevalence, disability-adjusted life year (DALY), and deaths of liver cancer attributable to the comorbidity were assessed at the global, regional, and country levels and then stratified by the sociodemographic index (SDI), sex, and age group. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. In 2019, the global age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates of liver cancer attributable to HBV-T2DM comorbidity were 9.9 (8.4-11.5) and 182.4 (154.9-212.7) per 10,000,000 individuals, respectively. High-income Asia Pacific and East Asia had the highest age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates of liver cancer attributable to HBV-T2DM comorbidity, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates increased in 16 out of 21 GBD regions. High-income North America had the largest annual increases in both age-standardized prevalence rates (EAPC = 6.07; 95% UI, 5.59 to 6.56) and DALY rates (EAPC = 4.77; 95% UI, 4.35 to 5.20), followed by Australasia and Central Asia. Across all SDI regions, the high SDI region exhibited the most rapid increase in age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates from 1990 to 2019. Additionally, men had consistently higher disease burdens than women across all age groups. The patterns of mortality burden and trends are similar to those of DALYs. The burden of liver cancer attributable to comorbid T2DM among people living with HBV has exhibited an increasing trend across most regions over the last three decades. Tailored prevention strategies targeting T2DM should be implemented among individuals living with HBV.

Global, regional, and national burden of atrial fibrillation/flutter related to metabolic risks over three decades: estimates from the global burden of disease study 2019.

Atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter (AF/AFL) remains a significant public health concern on a global scale, with metabolic risks playing an increasingly prominent role. This study aimed to investigate comprehensive epidemiological data and trends concerning the metabolic risks related-AF/AFL burden based on the data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. The analysis of disease burden focused on numbers, age-standardized rates (ASR) of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), while considering factors of age, sex, sociodemographic index (SDI), and locations. In 2019, there was a culmination of 137179 deaths and 4099146 DALYs caused by metabolic risks related-AF/AFL worldwide, with an increase of 162.95% and 120.30% respectively from 1990. High and high-middle SDI regions predominantly carried the burden of AF/AFL associated with metabolic risks, while a shift towards lower SDI regions had been occurring. Montenegro had the highest recorded death rate (7.6 per 100000) and DALYs rate (146.3 per 100000). An asymmetrically inverted V-shaped correlation was found between SDI and deaths/DALYs rates. Moreover, females and the elderly exhibited higher AF/AFL burdens, and young adults (over 40 years old) also experienced an annual increase. The global AF/AFL burden related to metabolic risks has significantly increased over past three decades, with considerable spatiotemporal, gender-based, and age-related heterogeneity. These findings shed valuable light on the trends in the burden of metabolic risks related-AF/AFL, and offered insights into corresponding strategies.

Discrepancies in dengue burden estimates: A comparative analysis of reported cases and Global Burden of Disease Study, 2010-2019.

Dengue is a significant mosquito-borne disease. Several studies have utilized estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to assess the global, regional, or national burden of dengue over time. However, our recent investigation suggests that GBD's estimates for dengue cases in Taiwan are unrealistically high. The current study extends the scope to compare reported dengue cases with GBD estimates across 30 high-burden countries and territories, aiming to assess the accuracy and interpretability of the GBD's dengue estimates. Data for this study were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study and various national and international databases documenting reported dengue cases. The analysis targeted the top 30 countries and territories with the highest 10-year average of reported cases from 2010 to 2019. Discrepancies were quantified by computing absolute differences and ratios between the 10-year average of reported cases and GBD estimates. Coefficients of variation (CV) and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to assess variations and trends in the two data sources. Significant discrepancies were noted between reported data and GBD estimates in the number of dengue cases, incidence rates, and EAPCs. GBD estimates were substantially higher than reported cases for many entities, with the most notable differences found in China (570.0-fold), India (303.0-fold), Bangladesh (115.4-fold), Taiwan (85.5-fold), and Indonesia (23.2-fold). Furthermore, the GBD's estimates did not accurately reflect the extensive yearly fluctuations in dengue outbreaks, particularly in non-endemic regions such as Taiwan, China, and Argentina, as evidenced by high CVs. This study reveals substantial discrepancies between GBD estimates and reported dengue cases, underscoring the imperative for comprehensive analysis in areas with pronounced disparities. The failure of GBD estimates to represent the considerable annual fluctuations in dengue outbreaks highlights the critical need for improvement in disease burden estimation methodologies for dengue.

Spatial–temporal trends in leprosy burden and its associations with socioeconomic and physical geographic factors: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

ObjectivesThe purpose of our study was to assess the multiscalar changes in leprosy burden and its associated risk factors over the last three decades. Study designWe conducted an in-depth examination of leprosy's spatial–temporal trends at multiple geographical scale (global, regional, and national), utilizing information from Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019). MethodsIncidence and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of leprosy were determined, with countries categorized based on leprosy incidence changes. We examined socioeconomic and physical geography influences on leprosy incidence via Spearman correlation analysis, using ternary phase diagrams to reveal the synergetic effects on leprosy occurrence. ResultsGlobally, incident cases of leprosy decreased by 27.86% from 1990 to 2019, with a reduction in ASIR (EAPC = −2.53), yet trends were not homogeneous across regions. ASIR and EAPC correlated positively with sociodemographic index (SDI), and an ASIR growth appeared in high SDI region (EAPC = 3.07). Leprosy burden was chiefly distributed in Tropical Latin America, Oceania, Central Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia. Negative correlations were detected between the incidence of leprosy and factors of SDI, GDP per capita, urban population to total population, and precipitation, whereas the number of refugee population, temperature, and elevation showed opposite positive results. ConclusionsDespite a global decline in leprosy over the past three decades, the disparities of disease occurrence at regional and national scales still persisted. Socioeconomic and physical geographic factors posed an obvious influence on the transmission risk of leprosy. The persistence and regional fluctuations of leprosy incidence necessitate the ongoing dynamic and multilayered control strategies worldwide in combating this ancient disease.

The Burden of Cardiovascular Disease attributable to High Fasting Plasma Glucose：Findings From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

AimHigh fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) is a key risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Few studies have evaluated the CVD burden attributable to HFPG globally. It is urgent to investigate the current epidemiological pattern and past trends of CVD attributable to HFPG. MethodsWe used the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 to describe the CVD burden attributable to HFPG in 2019 and evaluate temporal trends between 1990 and 2019. ResultsGlobal Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) cases and death cases of HFPG-related CVD were approximately 72,591,163 and 3,763,298 in 2019, with an increase of 107.4% and 114.6% compared with 1990, respectively. Despite the increases, the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDAR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of HFPG-related CVD contributed to 895.2 per 100,000 people and 48.4 per 100,000 people in 2019, with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of ﹣0.22 and ﹣0.31, respectively, from 1990. The highest ASDAR and ASDR of HFPG-related CVD were in 2019 observed in the low-middle‐SDI (Socio‐demographic Index) and middle‐SDI regions. Low‐SDI and some low-middle‐SDI regions showed an increase in ASDAR and ASDR of HFPG-related CVD from 1990 to 2019. Males are more affected by HFPG-related CVD than females across all years. The CVD burden attributable to HFPG in the elderly are higher than those in the young in 2019. The main causes of the global CVD burden attributable to HFPG in 2019 were ischemic heart disease, stroke, and peripheral arterial disease. ConclusionThe CVD burden attributable to HFPG remains a serious public health challenge threatening human health worldwide. It is necessary to develop more targeted and specific strategies to reduce CVD burden attributable to HFPG, especially in males, elderly, and lower SDI regions.

Global burden of osteoarthritis from 1990 to 2019 attributable to high body mass index

IntroductionTo examine data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 to determine the global burden of osteoarthritis (OA) from 1990 to 2019 that is attributable to high body mass index (BMI).Material and methodsDisability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and age-standardized DALY rates, and their corresponding estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs), were used to compare estimated OA burdens between countries and regions. Moreover, a comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the risks attributable to high BMI in terms of DALYs.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized DALY rate for OA attributable to high BMI increased significantly (EAPC = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.44, 1.47). Moreover, from 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized DALY rate and number of DALYs for OA attributable to high BMI increased less in women than in men. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized DALY rate for OA attributable to high BMI increased the most in South Asia (EAPC = 3.94). From 1990 to 2019, among 204 countries worldwide, the age-standardized DALY rate for OA attributable to high BMI increased the most in Equatorial Guinea (EAPC = 7.42). Also, the burden was higher in high-sociodemographic index (SDI) regions than in low-SDI regions.ConclusionsThe global burden of OA attributable to high BMI increased significantly from 1990 to 2019. In particular, this burden was higher in women than in men; primarily affected middle-aged and older adults; and was generally greater in high-SDI regions than in low-SDI regions.

Cardiovascular Disease Burden Attributable to High Sodium Intake in China: A Longitudinal Study from 1990 to 2019.

Overconsumption of sodium has been identified as a key driving factor for diet-related cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). China, being a country bearing a hefty burden of CVD, has a large population with diverse cultural traditions and ethnic beliefs, which complicates the patterns of dietary sodium intake, necessitating a systematic investigation into the profile of the high sodium intake (HSI)-related burden of CVD within its subregions. This study aims to estimate the evolving patterns of HSI-induced CVD burden across China from 1990 to 2019. The methodology used in the Global Burden of Disease Study was followed to assess deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by age, sex, region, and socio-demographic index (SDI). The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to quantify the secular changes in the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR). In 2019, 0.79 million deaths and 1.93 million DALYs of CVD were attributed to HSI, an increase of 53.91% and 39.39% since 1990, respectively. Nevertheless, a downward trend in ASMR (EAPC: -1.45, 95% CI: -1.55, -1.35) and ASDR (EAPC: -1.61, 95% CI: -1.68, -1.53) was detected over time. ASMR and ASDR were higher for males, individuals aged ≥60 years, and regions with low-middle SDI. A markedly negative association between the EAPC in both ASMR and ASDR and the SDI was found in 2019 (ρ = -0.659, p < 0.001 and ρ = -0.558, p < 0.001, respectively). The HSI-induced CVD burden is gender-, age-, and socioeconomic-dependent. Integrated and targeted strategies for CVD prevention are anticipated in the future throughout China.

Global burden of stroke attributable to high systolic blood pressure in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019.

High systolic blood pressure (HSBP) is severely related to stroke, although the global burden of stroke associated with HSBP needs to be understood. Data derived from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study were used to analyze deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized rates of mortality (ASMR), age-standardized rates of DALY (ASDR), and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Globally, 52.57% of deaths and 55.54% of DALYs from stroke were attributable to HSBP in 2019, with higher levels in men; the ASMRs and ASDRs in 1990-2019 experienced a decline of 34.89% and 31.71%, respectively, with the highest ASMR- and ASDR-related EAPCs in women. The middle socio-demographic index (SDI) regions showed the most numbers of deaths and DALYs in 2019 and 1990, with a decline in ASMR and ASDR; East Asia shared over 33% of global deaths and DALYs; Central Asia shared the highest ASMR and ASDR; high-income Asia Pacific experienced the highest decline in the ASMR- and ASDR-related EAPCs. Central and Southeast Asia had the highest percentages for deaths and DALYs, respectively, with more ASMR in high-middle SDI; the SDI and human development index were negatively associated with ASMR/ASDR and ASMR/ASDR-related EAPCs in 2019. Global deaths and DALYs of stroke attributable to HSBP but none of their age-standardized rates have been on the rise over the past three decades; its disease burden focused especially on men aged 70 years and older in East, Central, and Southeast Asia, and the middle to high SDI regions.

Metabolic risks remain a serious threat to cardiovascular disease: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Metabolic factors are major and controllable risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVD), and few studies have described this burden. We aim to assess it from 1990 to 2019 and predict the trends through 2034. Global Burden of Disease (GBD) provides data on sex, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI) levels. Numbers, age-standardized death rates (ASDR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were used. Future trends were estimated by NORDPRED model. The deaths cases of metabolic-related CVD increased from 8.61 million (95% UI: 7.91-9.29) to 13.71 million (95% UI: 12.24-14.94) globally. The ASDR continued to decline globally (EAPC = -1.36). The burden was heavier in male and middle-aged people and elderly people. CVD-related ASDR caused by high systolic blood pressure (SBP) had a downward trend globally (EAPC = -1.45), while trends of high body mass index (BMI) (EAPC = 1.29, 1.97, 0.92) and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) (EAPC = 0.95, 1.08, 0.46) were increasing in the middle, low-middle, and low SDI regions, respectively. Compared to 2015-2019, cumulative deaths will increase by 27.85% from 2030 to 2034, while ASDR will decrease 10.47%. The metabolic-related CVD burden remained high globally and deaths will continue to rise in the future. Men, middle-aged and elderly people were focus of concern. High SBP was globally well-managed over the past 30years, but the CVD burden due to high BMI and FPG remained high. Exceptional initiatives are needed to regarding interventions targeting high BMI and FPG in middle and lower SDI regions.

The differences in gastric cancer epidemiological data between SEER and GBD: a joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis

BackgroundThe burden of gastric cancer (GC) should be further clarified worldwide, and helped us to understand the current situation of GC.MethodsIn the present study, we estimated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and mortality rates attributable to several major GC risk factors, including smoking, dietary risk, and behavioral risk. In addition, we evaluated the incidence rate and trends of incidence-based mortality (IBM) due to GC in the United States (US) during 1992–2018.ResultsGlobally, GC incidences increased from 883,395 in 1990 to 1,269,805 in 2019 while GC-associated mortality increased from 788,316 in 1990 to 957,185 in 2019. In 2019, the age-standardized rate (ASR) of GC exhibited variations around the world, with Mongolia having the highest observed ASR (43.7 per 100,000), followed by Bolivia (34 per 100,000) and China (30.6 per 100,000). A negative association was found among estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and ASR (age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR): r = − 0.28, p < 0.001; age-standardized death rate (ASDR): r =  − 0.19, p = 0.005). There were 74,966 incidences of GC and 69,374 GC-related deaths recorded between 1992 and 2018. The significant decrease in GC incidences as well as decreasing trends in IBM of GC were first detected in 1994. The GC IBM significantly increased at a rate of 35%/y from 1992 to 1994 (95% CI 21.2% to 50.4%/y), and then begun to decrease at a rate of − 1.4%/y from 1994 to 2018 (95% CI − 1.6% to − 1.2%/y).ConclusionThese findings mirror the global disease burden of GC and are important for development of targeted prevention strategies.

Global burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence and influencing factors study 1990–2019: analysis of the global burden of disease study

IntroductionWidespread concern exists in today’s world regarding self-harm and interpersonal violence. This study to analyze the changes in temporal trends and spatial patterns of risk factors and burdens of self-harm and interpersonal violence using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.MethodsTemporal trends in self-harm and interpersonal violence were initially summarized using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Data were compiled and visualized to delineate changes in disease burden and factors influencing self-harm and interpersonal violence from 1990 to 2019, stratified by gender, age and GBD region.ResultsIn 2019, the DALY rates of self-harm were 424.7(95% UI 383.25, 466.93). Over the period from 1999 to 2019, self-harm exhibited an overall decreasing trend, with the EAPC of -1.5351 (95% CI -1.6194, -1.4507), -2.0205 (95% CI -2.166, -1.8740) and -2.0605 (95% CI -2.2089, -1.9119), respectively. In contrast, the incidence rate of interpersonal violence was significantly higher than self-harm, with a rate of 413.44 (95% UI 329.88, 502.37) per 100,000 population. Mortality and DALYs of interpersonal violence were lower than those of self-harm, at 5.22 (95% UI 4.87, 5.63) and 342.43 (95% UI 316.61, 371.55). Disease burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence varied by gender, age groups and region. Specific risk factors showed that alcohol use, high temperature and drug use were the main risk factors for self-harm, while alcohol use, intimate partner violence and high temperature were associated with interpersonal violence. Low temperature was a common protective factor for both self-harm and interpersonal violence. The burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence was attributed to different factors influences in different SDI regions.ConclusionsThe study explored temporal trends and spatial distribution of the global disease burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence, emphasizing the significant impact of factors such as alcohol use, temperature, and drug use on disease burden. Further research and policy actions are needed to interpret recent changes of disease burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence, and dedicated efforts should be implemented to devise evidence-based interventions and policies to curtail risk factors and protect high-risk groups.

The global burden and risk factors of cardiovascular diseases in adolescent and young adults, 1990–2019

BackgroundTo provide details of the burden and the trend of the cardiovascular disease (CVD) and its risk factors in adolescent and young adults.MethodsAge-standardized rates (ASRs) of incidence, mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were used to describe the burden of CVD in adolescents and young adults. Estimated Annual Percentage Changes (EAPCs) of ASRs were used to describe the trend from 1990 to 2019. Risk factors were calculated by Population Attributable Fractions (PAFs).ResultsIn 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) of CVD were 129.85 per 100 000 (95% Confidence interval (CI): 102.60, 160.31), 15.12 per 100 000 (95% CI: 13.89, 16.48) and 990.64 per 100 000 (95% CI: 911.06, 1076.46). The highest ASRs were seen in low sociodemographic index (SDI) and low-middle SDI regions. The burden was heavier in male and individuals aged 35–39. From 1990 to 2019, 72 (35.29%) countries showed an increasing trend of ASIR and more than 80% countries showed a downward trend in ASMR and ASDR. Rheumatic heart disease had the highest ASIR and Ischemic Heart Disease was the highest in both ASMR and ASDR. The main attributable risk factor for death and DALYs were high systolic blood pressure, high body-mass index and high LDL cholesterol.ConclusionsThe burden of CVD in adolescent and young adults is a significant global health challenge. It is crucial to take into account the disparities in SDI levels among countries, gender and age characteristics of the population, primary types of CVD, and the attributable risk factors when formulating and implementing prevention strategies.

Global, regional, and national burden of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for facial fractures from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

Facial fractures are common injuries causing cosmetic, functional, and psychological damage. The purpose of this study was to assess the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) of facial fractures from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD). Detailed data for the disease burden of facial fractures were obtained from online available public data (Global Health Data Exchange) derived from the GBD study. The incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of facial fractures from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed by country, region, age, gender, sociodemographic index (SDI), and cause. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized YLDs rate (ASYR), and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were calculated to evaluate the disease burden and quantify the trends over time. The main causes of facial fractures in different years and ages were assessed. Globally, there were 8.9million incident cases, 1.5million cases prevalent cases, and 98.1 thousand years YLDs in 2019. Compared with 1990, the number of incident cases, prevalent cases, and YLDs increased, while ASIR (EAPC, - 0.47; 95% uncertainty interval [UI], - 0.57 to - 0.37), ASPR (EAPC, - 0.39; 95% UI, - 0.46 to - 0.31), ASYR (EAPC, - 0.39; 95% UI, - 0.47 to - 0.32) showed a downward trend. The high SDI region held the highest ASIR, ASPR, and ASYR both in 1990 and 2019, such as New Zealand, Slovenia, and Australia. The burden was higher in men than in women from 1990 to 2019, while the ASRs in women exceeded that of men in the elderly. The ASIR peaked in the young adult group, however, the ASPR and ASYR increased with age. Falls and road injuries were the leading causes of facial fractures. Facial fractures continue to cause a heavy burden on public health worldwide. More targeted strategies need to be established to control the burden of facial fractures.

Global burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to smoking, 1990-2019: an analysis of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study.

This study aims to investigate the trends in the global cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden attributable to smoking from 1990 to 2019. Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 was used to analyse the burden of CVD attributable to smoking (i.e. ischaemic heart disease, peripheral artery disease, stroke, atrial fibrillation and flutter, and aortic aneurysm). Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100 000 and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rates (ASDRs) per 100 000, as well as an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in ASMR and ASDR, were determined by age, sex, year, socio-demographic index (SDI), regions, and countries or territories. The global ASMR of smoking-attributed CVD decreased from 57.16/100 000 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 54.46-59.97] in 1990 to 33.03/100 000 (95% UI 30.43-35.51) in 2019 [EAPC -0.42 (95% UI -0.47 to -0.38)]. Similarly, the ASDR of smoking-attributed CVD decreased between 1990 and 2019. All CVD subcategories showed a decline in death burden between 1990 and 2019. The burden of smoking-attributed CVD was higher in men than in women. Significant geographic and regional variations existed such that Eastern Europe had the highest ASMR and Andean Latin America had the lowest ASMR in 2019. In 2019, the ASMR of smoking-attributed CVD was lowest in high SDI regions. Smoking-attributed CVD morbidity and mortality are declining globally, but significant variation persists, indicating a need for targeted interventions to reduce smoking-related CVD burden.

Global, regional, and national burden and trends analysis of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2030: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Our aim was to explore the disease burden caused by gallbladder and biliary tract cancer globally, regionally, and nationally, by age and sex. The absolute number of cases and age-standardized rates (ASR) of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to gallbladder and biliary tract cancer were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. We estimated the trends in disease burden by calculating the percentage change in the absolute number of cases and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in ASR, by social development index (SDI), region, nation, sex, and age. From 1990 to 2019, the number of incident cases, prevalent cases, deaths, and DALYs worldwide significantly increased by 1.85-fold, 1.92-fold, 1.82-fold, and 1.68-fold, respectively. However, the age-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs tend to decrease globally over time. Nevertheless, heterogeneous disease burden patterns exist between geographic regions due to different geographical risk factors, distinct epidemiologically predominant gallbladder and biliary tract cancer subtypes, and potential genetic predispositions or ethnicity. Additionally, socioeconomic status mediates the regional variation in disease burden, with increasing SDI or HDI scores associated with downward trends in the age-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs. Older individuals and females are at higher risk of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer, but the increasing burden of early-onset gallbladder and biliary tract cancer is a cause for concern, especially for those living in lower SDI areas and males. High BMI is the primary risk factors underlying gallbladder and biliary tract cancer, accounted for 15.2% of deaths and 15.7% DALYs globally in 2019. Our study comprehensively elucidated the distribution and dynamic trends of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer burden over the past three decades, from multiple dimensions. These findings emphasize the importance of promoting a healthy lifestyle as a population-level cancer prevention strategy and tailoring cancer control actions based on localized risk factors and the epidemic profiles of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer by anatomical subtype.

Evaluation of Osteoarthritis Disease Burden in China During 1990-2019 and Forecasting Its Trend Over the Future 25 Years.

This study aimed to estimate the temporal trend of osteoarthritis (OA) burden in China by age, sex, and joint sites from 1990 to 2019 and predict the long-term trend over the next 25 years. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we estimated incident cases, prevalent cases, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of OA, and DALYs of OA attributed to high body mass index (BMI), as well as corresponding age-standardized rates (ASRs) for aforementioned indicies. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and Nordpred age-period-cohort model were used to describe temporal trend changes and predict future disease burden. From 1990 to 2019, the ASR of OA incidence increased from 472.53 per 100,000 to 509.84 per 100,000 people (EAPC: 0.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.29-0.44); the ASR of OA prevalence increased from 5,880.58 per 100,000 to 6,330.06 per 100,000 people (EAPC 0.35, 95% CI 0.28-0.42); the ASR of OA DALYs increased from 206.38 per 100,000 to 224.78 per 100,000 people (EAPC 0.40, 95% CI 0.32-0.48). The ASR of OA DALYs attributed to high BMI increased rapidly, especially in men and patients with hip OA. Projections suggest an increasing trend in the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs of OA from 2019 to 2044, with the prevalent cases and DALYs of OA in China expected to increase by approximately 1.5 times over the next 25 years. The disease burden of OA has increased in China over the past 30 years and is expected to continue rising over the next 25 years.

Evaluating the global impact of low physical activity on type 2 diabetes: Insights from the global burden of disease 2019 study.

We aimed to assess the global implications of low physical activity (LPA) on type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) by utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019. The analysis was conducted by examining the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates over a 30-year period. To assess the trends, we utilized estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). The study revealed a notable increase in the burden of DALYs attributable to T2DM resulting from LPA, with an EAPC of 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.78-0.89). Among the regions examined, Oceania showed the highest burden, whereas Eastern Europe exhibited the lowest burden. Specifically, within the Central Asia region, a considerable increase in T2DM-LPA DALYs was observed, with an EAPC of 3.18 (95% confidence interval 3.01-3.36). The burden associated with T2DM-LPA DALYs was found to be similar between genders and increased across all age groups, peaking in the 80-84 years. Furthermore, there was a clear association between the socio-demographic index (SDI) and the age-standardized DALYs rate. Regions categorized as low-middle and middle SDI experienced a substantial rise in burden. This study highlights a substantial increase in the T2DM-LPA DALYs in low-middle and middle SDI regions, as well as among individuals aged 80-84 years. These findings emphasize the importance of implementing comprehensive global health interventions that promote physical activity, particularly targeting high-risk populations and regions.

Assessing tobacco-related ischemic stroke in Pakistan (1990-2019): Insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study.

This study analyzes the impact of active smoking and secondhand smoke on the ischemic stroke burden of Pakistan, 1990-2019. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of ischemic stroke-related indicators in Pakistan, including the number of deaths, mortality rates, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), DALY rates, and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Joinpoint analysis was applied to assess sex-specific temporal trends in the burden of active smoking and secondhand smoke in Pakistan and regions of Pakistan. These assessments incorporated the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and we have made comparative analyses of epidemiological differences between active smoking and secondhand smoke exposure. The burden of ischemic stroke related to tobacco use is presented in terms of the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR) per 100000 population. The results (ASMR/ASDR) for Pakistan were 6.04/130.81, in the middle SDI region 7.69/176.54, and low-middle SDI region 5.64/124.22. Pakistan's ASMR is higher than the global average of 5.85, while ASDR is lower than the global average of 140.23. From 1990 to 2019, a downward trend in both ASMR and ASDR was observed, indicating progress in controlling tobacco-related stroke burdens. Individuals aged ≥70 years experienced the highest rates of stroke (ASMR: 66.31; ASDR: 1091.20). Gender disparities were evident: men were more affected by active smoking (ASMR: 3.08; ASDR: 78.47) than women (ASMR: 0.79; ASDR: 20.76), while women faced a higher burden from secondhand smoke (ASMR: 0.66; ASDR: 16.33) compared to men (ASMR: 0.79; ASDR: 9.93). Regional differences within Pakistan show fluctuating death and DALY rates. Notably, an increasing trend in female ASDR due to secondhand smoke in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Region (annual percentage change, APC=0.17 from 2010 to 2019) calls for focused health interventions. The study finds ASMR for tobacco-related ischemic stroke in Pakistan exceeds global averages, with significant gender and age disparities in exposure to smoke, highlighting the need for targeted health interventions.

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease attributable to high fasting plasma glucose from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2019.

Given the rising prevalence of high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) over the past three decades, it is crucial to assess its global, national, and regional impact on chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study aims to investigate the burden of CKD attributed to HFPG and its distribution across various levels. The data for this research was sourced from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019. To estimate the burden of CKD attributed to HFPG, we utilized DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. The burden was measured using age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate. Correlation analysis was performed using the Spearman rank order correlation method. Temporal trends were analyzed by estimating the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Globally in 2019, there were a total of 487.97 thousand deaths and 13,093.42 thousand DALYs attributed to CKD attributed to HFPG, which represent a substantial increase of 153.8% and 120%, respectively, compared to 1990. Over the period from 1990 to 2019, the burden of CKD attributable to HFPG increased across all regions, with the highest increases observed in regions with high socio-demographic index (SDI) and middle SDI. Regions with lower SDI exhibited higher ASMR and age-standardized DALYs (ASDR) compared to developed nations at the regional level. Additionally, the EAPC values, which indicate the rate of increase, were significantly higher in these regions compared to developed nations. Notably, high-income North America, belonging to the high SDI regions, experienced the greatest increase in both ASMR and ASDR over the past three decades. Furthermore, throughout the years from 1990 to 2019, males bore a greater burden of CKD attributable to HFPG. With an increasing population and changing dietary patterns, the burden of CKD attributed to HFPG is expected to worsen. From 1990 to 2019, males and developing regions have experienced a more significant burden. Notably, the EAPC values for both ASMR and ASDR were higher in males and regions with lower SDI (excluding high-income North America). This emphasizes the pressing requirement for effective interventions to reduce the burden of CKD attributable to HFPG.